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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE A panel investigation of the effects of climate change on international migration, 1960 - 2000. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Modelling review (MR6) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Report on the quantitative assessment of the impact of environmental change on international migration. Develops a simple neo-classical model, to include environmental change at origin in the form of amenities. Tests the model using a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows for the period 1960–2000. Considers the onset of sudden climatic phenomena and long-term changes in both temperature and precipitation. The model also allows for control of the crucial roles of destination country immigration policies and the generosity of welfare payments in receiving countries.
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| 11/1167 | 20-10-2011 |
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39 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE A review on the potential risks associated with development of new eco-cities in India in relation to climate risks/urbanisation: Mumbai-Pune region. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Case study (CS11) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Discusses the potential of eco-cities in India to mitigate climate change in the context of rapid urbanisation, focusing on the Mumbai–Pune region. Focuses on the dynamics between urban and rural spaces due to the interconnectedness between urbanisation, environment and migration The Mumbai–Pune expressway shows how the city of Lavasa demonstrates weaknesses in the argument that eco-cities are a solution to climate change and rapid urbanisation. Argues that strong environmental policy framing and regulation are crucial if eco-cities in India are to have any potential in mitigating climate change and addressing the challenges of rapid urbanisation and migration.
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| 11/1162 | 20-10-2011 |
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14 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Modelling review (MR2) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Presents the development and testing of an agent- based model (ABM) designed to replicate 1970–2000 climate migration in Burkina Faso and simulate migration flows forwards to 2060. Illustrates how agent-based models incorporating the theory of planned behaviour can be used to project evidence based future changes in migration in response to future demographic, economic social and climate change.
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| 11/1165 | 20-10-2011 |
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7 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Analysis of land area and population in the low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ). (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Modelling review (MR9) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Assesses population exposure to changes in sea levels in coastal regions. Part A describes the methods used for estimating the extent of the land area and the number of people located in the low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ) for the base year 2000 and presents the results of this analysis. Part B describes the methods used for developing the forecasts of coastal population for 2030 and 2060.
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| 11/1169 | 20-10-2011 |
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172 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Are there examples of remittances being used to build local resilience to environmental change, especially through investment in soil and water conservation, or broader agriculture? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR13) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Proves the causal links between migration, remittances and resilience to environmental change. Focuses on Western Mexico, the Central Plateau of Burkina Faso and Eastern India, where satellite imagery shows recent regeneration of vegetative cover and where there is evidence of high rates of migration. Analyses findings through a framework of ecological anthropology, new economics of labour theories and livelihoods analyses of migration drivers and impacts.
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| 11/1132 | 20-10-2011 |
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17 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Bangladesh, low elevation coastal zones and islands [workshop]: 3 - 4 February 2011. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Workshop review (WR3) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Summary of a workshop on low lying coastal zones held in partnership with the Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU) in Dhaka, Bangladesh. It established dialogue with local and regional experts and covered changes in ecosystem services and exposure to hazards, the drivers of migration and possible policies, interventions and technologies. Explored whether emerging findings were relevant to Bangladesh and other countries in the Asian region with significant populations living close to the sea.
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| 11/1333 | 20-10-2011 |
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37 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Changes in ecosystem services and migration in low-lying coastal areas over the next 50 years. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR7a) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Examines the history and current status of ecosystem services in low-lying coastal areas (LLCAs), their potential changes because of wider environmental and social shifts, and the potential impacts of these changes on human migration. Synthesises information from a number of sources on the status and value of ecosystem services in LLCAs. Provides maps of ecosystem and human population changes in LLCAs and then estimated changes in ecosystem services.
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| 11/1175 | 20-10-2011 |
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42 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Climate change adaptation and mitigation: implications for land acquisition and population relocation. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Working paper (WP3) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Reviews national action plans submitted by less developed and developing countries as part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process to secure financing for adaptation and mitigation projects. Assesses the likely societal impacts of those action plans with a particular emphasis on their implications for land-use change requiring land acquisition and population resettlement.
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| 11/1155 | 20-10-2011 |
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20 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Conflict management mechanisms in resource constrained African communities. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD11) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Examines the sources of conflicts in poor and resource-constrained African communities and the efforts to manage them. Argues that governance of environmentally related conflicts on the African continent involved multiple actors at local, national, regional and even international levels. Highlights the challenges of measuring the success of the conflict management efforts.
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| 11/1146 | 20-10-2011 |
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16 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Conflict, migration and environment: the case of Zimbabwe. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Case study (CS6) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Review of Zimbabwe’s recent crisis that provoked unprecedented mass population displacements within and beyond state borders. Ecological shocks have not been responsible for the mass movements of the crisis. However there are interactions between the transformation of rural and urban economies, migratory movements, food security and drought over the period 1997–2010. This paper aims to unpick these interactions by evaluating the evidence and assumptions on which they are based.
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| 11/1159 | 20-10-2011 |
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31 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Creating space for action: options for small island states to cope with global environmental change. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD15) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Reviews the options available for small island states to adapt to global environmental change and particularly to climate change. Focuses on developing policy options with regard to migration and environmental change. Makes recommendations to create space for action allowing island states to adapt to climate change and reduce vulnerability, thus making relocation of states including their populations even less necessary. In the short term, this means accessing the necessary financial resources for adaptation and developing the necessary skills and competencies, and creating stable and reliable predictable environment.
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| 11/1149 | 20-10-2011 |
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14 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Drivers of migration in household surveys. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Working paper (WP4) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Report that examines how important environmental factors are in driving migration. Brings together the results of a number of existing surveys examining what has driven people to migrate.
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| 11/1164 | 20-10-2011 |
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11 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Drivers of migration in mountainous regions of the developing world: a review. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR9) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Examines the drivers of migration in the mountainous regions of the developing world with a focus on the Himalayas, based on the available literature. Uses both quantitative and qualitative evidence from mountain countries or countries with significant mountainous regions in the developing world to illustrate various aspects of the migration process.
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| 11/1179 | 20-10-2011 |
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41 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Drylands workshop: 10 - 11 March 2011. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Workshop review (WR2) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Summary of a workshop, held in Johannesburg, South Africa which looked at dryland ecosystems. Covers drivers of migration, future environmental migration and policy implications, with a focus on African drylands.
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| 11/1332 | 20-10-2011 |
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41 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Early warning in the context of environmental shocks: demographic change, dynamic exposure to hazards, and the role of EWS in migration flows and human displacement. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR4b) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Reviews and identifies the key institutions and stakeholders running various early warning systems (EWS). Examines and discusses EWS and their governance, and their role relating to migration and displacement, particularly as vulnerable migrant groups often have less local knowledge and a special need for EWS information. Makes recommendations for improving EWS and preparedness relating to migration and human displacement.
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| 11/1123 | 20-10-2011 |
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76 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Modelling review (MR3) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Reviews existing research on and empirical evidence of how climate change and climate variability in less developed countries (LDCs) affects two main drivers of migration identified by the key migration models in the economic literature, and how they affect migration: income level differentials between origin and destination areas, and income variability in origin areas. Outline the migration models, their drivers, and how they are taken to the data. Reviews findings on how climate change and increased climate variability affect these drivers, migration, and migration through the drivers. Discusses the difficulties of making future predictions based on the findings, and makes policy recommendations.
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| 11/1187 | 20-10-2011 |
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12 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Environment, migration and the demographic deficit. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD7) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Considers whether migration is a valid policy approach in the context of a demographic deficit and the impact of environmental change on this relationship. Looks the evidence that in-migration to countries with ageing population structures reduces the burden from the so-called demographic deficit. Consider the impact of global on environmentally driven migration, explores whether environmental change will have an impact on population composition.
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| 11/1145 | 20-10-2011 |
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27 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Environmental and non-environmental drivers of migration from global drylands. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR6) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Analyses the relationship between migration and global drylands. Uses a conceptual model for projections to 2030 and 2060.
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| 11/1174 | 20-10-2011 |
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140 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Environmental changes and violent conflict. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR12b) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Reviews the scientific literature on whether and how environmental changes affect the risk of violent conflict. Qualitative case studies indicate that environmental stress can contribute to violent conflict, but general inferences should be drawn with care. Argues that the most important indirect effects are likely to lead from environmental changes via economic performance and migration to violent conflict.
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| 11/1131 | 20-10-2011 |
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19 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Environmental migration governance: debate in the European Union. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD17) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Outlines the state of the debate on the governance of environmental migration, focusing on the European Union. Analyses what laws and policies may emerge to deal with the issue among European governments.
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| 11/1151 | 20-10-2011 |
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20 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Estimating net migration by ecosystem and by decade: 1970 - 2010. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Modelling review (MR4) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Report of a project that generated estimates of decadal net migration (NM) flows by ecosystem type for the period 1970–2010. Provides a brief review of the literature on migration by ecosystem type, then describes the data and methods and then the results of this modelling exercise. Evaluates the results and discusses uncertainties and the steps that would need to be taken to reduce them.
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| 11/1166 | 20-10-2011 |
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129 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Evolving economies: what returns does migration provide for destination countries? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR18) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Draws together literature on the economic returns to immigration for the receiving country. Focuses on economic growth, and relates to international, rather than internal, migration. Looks at the effect that immigration has on GDP, and considers other economic benefits that immigration can potentially offer the host country.
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| 11/1137 | 20-10-2011 |
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16 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Exploring the dynamics of migration to mega-delta cities in Asia and Africa: Contemporary drivers and future scenarios. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR7b) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Uses a content analysis of the published literature to take stock of current understanding of key social and policy drivers of migration to cities in 11 Asian and African mega-deltas. Identifies commonalities and differences among them, and shows that migration to urban centres in mega-deltas is an outcome of many forces. Massive influx of capital to many deltas has transformed the local economic and created uneven spatial economic development. This is the underlying driver of migration to cities in the mega-deltas regardless of geographic context or size.
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| 11/1176 | 20-10-2011 |
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14 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Financial instruments for vulnerable locations. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD21) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Assesses how a broad range of environmental factors could, in interaction with other socioeconomic drivers of change, influence patterns of migration globally out to 2060. Also looks at the policy implications at the level of national governments and international bodies. Aims to investigate what market-based or other solutions are available for vulnerable locations (such as coastal mega-cities, low-lying areas) to finance insurance or mitigation.
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| 11/1154 | 20-10-2011 |
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25 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Future demographic change and its interactions with migration and climate. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR11) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Examines global demographic change as a driver of migration within the context of anticipated climate change. Covers evolving global demographic trends and discusses some of their potential impacts upon migration. Shows a close spatial coincidence between demographic and climate change ’hotspots’ that will influence migration in complex ways. Looks at the complex interaction between demographic change, environmental change and migration, and discusses the potential impacts of future trends and their policy implications.
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| 11/1181 | 20-10-2011 |
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13 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Global environmental governance and climate change-induced migration. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD16) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Discusses current knowledge on governance mechanisms as they are directly related to the protection of climate migrants.. Analyses how far the current system is able to deal with this challenge. Outlines reform options and addresses possible criticism and weak points in the arguments.
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| 11/1150 | 20-10-2011 |
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15 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE How effective are migration policies and non-migration policies that affect forced migration? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD12) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Argues that the effectiveness of migration and non-migration policies in regulating migration flows should not be overestimated. Analyses the role of push and pull factors of migration, the impact of different types of national policies and the effects of international cooperation on forced migration. Focuses on lessons learnt in the field of asylum and refugee policy, the area of forced migration with the most established evidence base.
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| 11/1147 | 20-10-2011 |
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14 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE How is the frequency, location and severity of extreme events likely to change up to 2060? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR1) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Extreme weather events have the potential to influence human migration. This report assesses the state of the scientific knowledge on how the frequency, location and severity of extreme weather events are likely to change up to 2060 together with the robustness of that knowledge. Focuses on climate change, using model-based climate change projections for different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
| 11/1119 | 20-10-2011 |
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19 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Impact of low-carbon policy on migration. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR15) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Reviews the main low-carbon technologies and policies that have been proposed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and considers their implications for human migration, particularly in the context of environmental change. Covers opportunities to abate future greenhouse gas emissions, macroeconomic impacts of mitigation, low-carbon jobs and low-carbon policy and migration.
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| 11/1185 | 20-10-2011 |
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42 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Improving urban living conditions in Kuyasa (Cape Town) through energy-efficiency retrofits: the impact on low-income communities. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD1) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Report on a project that installed solar water heaters, thermal insulating ceilings, energy-efficient lighting and improved wiring in houses in Kuyasa in Cape Town. Uses surveys to identify the impact of the project on the community and the resulting reduction in demand on the local municipality’s service delivery. The main effects have been on the overall health status of the community, a reduction in energy expenditure and an improvement in the residents’ quality of life.
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| 11/1141 | 20-10-2011 |
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38 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE International migration in the Mashriq countries: past trends, future potentials and determinants - possible implications for environmental migration? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD13) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Examines the recent history and current position of migration flows from and to the Mashriq region, the Arabic-speaking countries to the east of Egypt and north of the Arabian Peninsula. Relates these flows to the international migratory regimes of neighbouring regions and other parts of the world, and elaborates upon related migration policies and practices at state levels. Explores potential migration pressures, including adaptation to environmental change in the Mashriq states and potential migratory movements resulting from environmental changes in the future.
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| 11/1148 | 20-10-2011 |
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21 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Is the EU offloading future migration issues to the 'southern neighbourhood'? Thinking environmental migration in relation to externalisation. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Case study (CS8) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Studies the externalisation of migration control policies adopted at the European Union (EU) level, which could affect environmentally induced migration (EIM) in the Mediterranean. Discusses of externalisation and environmental migration interaction in southern Mediterranean. Studies the policy tools of externalisation, and the effects of externalisation processes for migrants who are caught in the buffer zone and for societies/states in the EU’s southern neighbourhood, focusing on externalisation practices taking place between 2004 and 2010. Constructs future scenarios on EIM in the Mediterranean region.
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| 11/1160 | 20-10-2011 |
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21 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Lessons learnt from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Case study (CS2) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Mass migration, both short term and long term, took place in the aftermath of the Asian tsunami disaster on Boxing Day 2004, subsequent to the immense human and infrastructural destruction that was caused. This paper assesses migration-related systems and policies that were in place prior to the disaster in Aceh (Indonesia), Sri Lanka, India and Thailand, and the systems that evolved subsequently. Makes recommendations about possible future interventions to better manage such disaster situations and mass environmental migration.
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| 11/1157 | 20-10-2011 |
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25 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Lessons to learn from Curitiba: fastest urbanisation rate with a higher standard of living than its neighbours. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Working paper (WP2) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Looks at the strategic issues facing cities that offer a higher potential to improve the quality of life of their citizens and of the environment. The design of a city should set up a structure of growth, mobility, sustainability and identity/diversity. In Curitiba, the capital city of the State of Paraná, Southern Brazil, these concepts were translated into several initiatives and policies that helped the city to become a positive example in terms of urban planning.
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| 11/1142 | 20-10-2011 |
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13 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Macro-economic management of extreme events. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR15) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Macroeconomic management in response to extreme natural events. The costs of extreme events have increased because economic prosperity has increased the density of human habitation, and because of the much greater interconnectedness of global economic activity. Focuses on low-income countries, specifically smaller developing countries both because these countries tend to be the most vulnerable.
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| 11/1134 | 20-10-2011 |
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23 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Mediterranean migration futures: patterns, drivers and scenarios. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR8b) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Explores possible futures of Mediterranean migration in the coming 50 years based on an evaluation of past and current drivers of migration in the region. Aims to provide an assessment of how changes in
drivers and their interaction may lead to different migration
outcomes. See also URN 11/1177 which focuses on environmental drivers.
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| 11/1178 | 20-10-2011 |
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11 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Mediterranean workshop report: [17 - 18 February 2011]. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Workshop review (WR4) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Summary of a workshop held in Istanbul on the Mediterranean region. Identifies major drivers of migration and how they relate to environmental issues and discusses the current characteristics of migrants and how they may evolve according to pre-designed scenarios. Covers policies that will catalyse action, and identifies stakeholders to involve for a successful outcome. Looks at environmental migration of today and how it may evolve in the Mediterranean region, focussing on Turkey.
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| 11/1334 | 20-10-2011 |
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40 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Microinsurance and climatic-related disasters: challenges and options. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR14) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Describes where microinsurance can and cannot help in mitigating the impact on people in low-income countries of natural disasters whose severity or frequency is increased as a result of climate change. Also looks at what would need to happen for microinsurance to provide a significant level of protection against the impact of natural disasters.
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| 11/1133 | 20-10-2011 |
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14 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migración y cambio climático global: retos y oportunidades futuras. Informe de proyecto final: resumen ejecutivo. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Spanish language translation of the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' report executive summary (URN 11/1116). Considers migration in the context of environmental change over the next 50 years. See the browse subject ‘Migration and global environmental change’ for related papers.
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| 12/572 | 01-03-2012 |
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22 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migrant destinations in an era of environmental change. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR1) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Applies established knowledge from the migration research literature to environmental mobility. Examines migration destinations of environmental movers. Reports research relating to the migration destinations of populations affected by drought and food insecurity. Also studies Europe as a destination region for migration flows.
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| 11/1170 | 20-10-2011 |
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9 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migration and displacement in the context of adaptation to climate change: developments in the UNFCCC climate change negotiations and potential for future action. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD23) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Explores human migration and displacement has recently entered into the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) climate negotiations. Describes a process that framed migration as a technical and legitimate part of a wider adaptation framework. Explores the perspectives of different groups of countries and their interaction with researchers and operational organisations to bring the topic into negotiating text from 2008 onwards. Examines possible activities that may take shape within the emerging climate adaptation regime and in bilateral and other policy arenas.
| 11/1269 | 20-10-2011 |
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36 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migration and global environmental change: future challenges and opportunities. Action plan. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Action plan for the Foresight ‘Migration and global environmental change’ report (URN 11/1116). Interested parties in stakeholder organisations and the Government, in the UK and internationally, have contributed developing and analysing the evidence. The action plan provides a flavour of how these organisations will use the findings to inform their work.
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| 11/1340 | 20-10-2011 |
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6 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migration and global environmental change: future challenges and opportunities. Final project report (Russian). (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Russian language translation of the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' report executive summary (URN 11/1116). Considers migration in the context of environmental change over the next 50 years. See the browse subject ‘Migration and global environmental change’ for related papers.
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| 12/571 | 23-03-2012 |
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22 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migration and global environmental change: future challenges and opportunities. Final project report executive summary [Chinese]. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Chinese language translation of the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' report executive summary (URN 11/1116). Considers migration in the context of environmental change over the next 50 years. See the browse subject ‘Migration and global environmental change’ for related papers.
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| 12/568 | 01-03-2012 |
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22 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migration and global environmental change: future challenges and opportunities. Final project report. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Main report from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Considers migration in the context of environmental change over the next 50 years. It examines global migration trends, and also internal migration trends particularly within low-income countries. See the browse subject ‘Migration and global environmental change’ for related papers.
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| 11/1116 | 20-10-2011 |
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234 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migration and global environmental change: future challenges and opportunities. Final project report: executive summary [Arabic]. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Arabic language translation of the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' report executive summary (URN 11/1116). Considers migration in the context of environmental change over the next 50 years. See the browse subject ‘Migration and global environmental change’ for related papers.
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| 12/567 | 01-03-2012 |
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22 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migration and global environmental change: future challenges and opportunities. Final project report: executive summary. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Executive summary from the main report from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project (URN 11/1116). Considers migration in the context of environmental change over the next 50 years. See the browse subject ‘Migration and global environmental change’ for related papers.
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| 11/1115 | 20-10-2011 |
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22 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migration and global environmental change: future challenges and opportunities. Future scenarios. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Presents the scenario narratives and data developed as part of the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Explains the purpose of the scenarios, their use in the project, and the process undertaken to develop them. Includes data used for the construction of the four scenarios. See URN 11/1116 for the main report.
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| 11/1117 | 20-10-2011 |
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38 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migration et changements environnementaux planétaires: défis et opportunités futurs. Rapport final du projet: synthèse. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
French language translation of the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' report executive summary (URN 11/1116). Considers migration in the context of environmental change over the next 50 years. See the browse subject ‘Migration and global environmental change’ for related papers.
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| 12/569 | 01-03-2012 |
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22 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Migration und globale umweltveränderungen: zukünftige herausforderungen und möglichkeiten. Endgültiger projektbericht: kurzfassung. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
German language translation of the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' report executive summary (URN 11/1116). Considers migration in the context of environmental change over the next 50 years. See the browse subject ‘Migration and global environmental change’ for related papers.
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| 12/570 | 01-03-2012 |
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22 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Mitigating conflict and violence in Africa's rapidly growing cities. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD4) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Describes the social strain caused by urbanisation in Africa, and African governments' responses to this. Argues for a significant change of course in policy to assure human security in urban areas in the years ahead. Urban areas require a proactive approach to managing the growth, concerted efforts to strengthen urban governance systems and policy strategies to support and accelerate urban economic development.
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| 11/1143 | 20-10-2011 |
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18 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Model specification and results of Bayesian forecasts of total and environmental immigration to the United Kingdom, 2010 - 2060. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Modelling review (MR8) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Presents and discusses Bayesian forecasts of international immigration to the UK until 2030 and 2060, with a focus on environmental mobility. Brings together expert knowledge and historical data, to provide more reliable measures of uncertainty associated with immigration forecasts. Looks at the specification of Bayesian forecasting models and results of forecasts of total and environmental migration to the UK, respectively for multivariate (taking into account demographic and economic drivers of migration), and univariate models (based only on immigration series). Makes recommendations resulting from the study.
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| 11/1168 | 20-10-2011 |
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45 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Mountainous regions workshop: 28 February - 1 March 2011. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Workshop review (WR1) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Summary of a workshop held in cooperation with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Kathmandu, Nepal. Covers drivers of migration, present and future environmental migration, future uncertainty and socioeconomic scenarios, and policy and interventions for mountainous regions.
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| 11/1331 | 20-10-2011 |
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28 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE New technologies and the monitoring and management of migration flows and population displacement. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR16) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Discusses a number of new technologies in relation to the phenomenon of environmental migration, i.e. migration or displacement reaction to environmental change or shock. Focuses on how these technologies can monitor and manage migration flows, including environmental refugees in a more general sense.
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| 11/1135 | 20-10-2011 |
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24 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Past UK experience of the arrival of populations displaced by extreme events. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD6) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Explores the circumstances under which policies have been introduced to resettle or provide temporary protection for some populations displaced by extreme events. Examines the evidence on what works in refugee resettlement, focusing on housing and resettlement patterns, employment and social integration. Considers lessons to be learnt for government on how government might respond to increased arrivals associated with environmental change. Looks at critical issues, or ‘tipping points’ that would turn a manageable problem of population movement into a political disaster.
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| 11/1144 | 20-10-2011 |
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24 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Population movement in response to climate-related hazards in Bangladesh: the 'last resort'. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Case study (CS4) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Investigates trends in hazard losses and the implications of water-related disasters for human migration over recent decades in Bangladesh. Examines whether comparable events caused more damage in the past than today and what lessons can be learned from Bangladesh’s experiences for other countries facing similar environmental circumstances. Covers issues including building resilience, resettlement and technological developments, specifically why some locations are now more resilient than others, whether some hazard-prone areas have been depopulated and how advances in technology and early-warning systems have in turn facilitated population movements to safe havens.
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| 11/1158 | 20-10-2011 |
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38 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Quantative analysis of determinants of international migration. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR10) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Examines the effect of global climate change on migration. Using recently collected data it analyses a model of global migration. Demonstrates that the emergence of an immigrant diaspora is predominantly economic in character, rather than political.
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| 11/1180 | 20-10-2011 |
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69 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Quantifying change in ecosystem services and exposure to hazards in the Mediterranean basin over the next 50 years that might be relevant to migration. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR8a) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Examines the environmental drivers of migration in the Mediterranean. Focuses on the role of ecosystem services and the impact of environmental hazards as potential push and pull factors. See also URN 11/1178 which covers the substantial role of non-environmental drivers.
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| 11/1177 | 20-10-2011 |
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64 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Review of data and predictions about attitudes to migration and the environment. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Modelling review (MR5) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Provides a brief conceptual discussion about analysis of attitudinal response data relevant to the project. Reviews major data sources that are useful for work on attitudes to migration and environmental change, and analyses of concerns about immigration and the environment using Eurobarometer data. Provides a brief literature review of papers that exist about attitudes to the environment, to immigration, and about drivers of migration, and concludes with recommendations for future data collections.
| 11/1270 | 20-10-2011 |
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37 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Review of legal and political framework which affects migration, including institutional architecture and capacity, and how it is affected by future environmental change. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR13) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Focuses on international legal norms and organisational roles and relations applicable to migration induced by environmental change. Examines internal and international movements stemming directly and indirectly from environmental factors related to climate change, including, for example, movements resulting from intensified drought and desertification affecting livelihoods.
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| 11/1183 | 20-10-2011 |
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34 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Review of the social drivers of migration. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR14) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Examines the significance of social drivers in environmental change/migration systems. Looks at the principal social drivers of migration, the extent that social drivers affect the volume, patterns and character of migration. Investigates whether there important interactions of social drivers with the other drivers of migration and how these causal relations and interactions between drivers might interplay in the future.
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| 11/1184 | 20-10-2011 |
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52 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Settlement abandonment in the context of global environmental change. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Case study review (CR1) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Explores how environmentally related settlement abandonment processes unfold, and considers future challenges in the context of global environmental change. Reviews review 250 examples past examples of settlement abandonment, identifies the potential spatial and temporal scales across which abandonment occurs, and describes the dynamic human–environment interactions that drive abandonment processes. Looks at how and why a given settlement or settlement region shifts from a position of population increase and stability to one of instability and rapid decline. Links current scholarly understandings of environmental migration and human vulnerability to environmental change.
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| 11/1190 | 20-10-2011 |
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13 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Small island states and islands: economies, ecosystems, change and migration. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR16) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Examines the past, present and potential future relationships between migration and environmental and socioeconomic change in a range of small island states and other dependent territories. Covers changes in ecosystem services and exposure to hazards in these contexts in so far as they are relevant to migration in the foreseeable future. Focuses on the Pacific, using empirical studies.
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| 11/1186 | 20-10-2011 |
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156 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Small island states and islands: economies, ecosystems, change and migration. Appendix. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Appendix to driver review (DR16) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Appendix 1 to the report ‘Small island states and islands: economies, ecosystems, change and migration’. Includes population and economy basic data for Atlantic and Caribbean, Pacific, and Indian Ocean small island state and islands.
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| 11/1186AN | 20-10-2011 |
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Specification for a state of science review: wildland fires. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR10) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Summarises global fire, identifying the root causes of major problems, and focusing on some of the major regions of concern. Focuses on key regions around the world, from tropical to temperate to boreal ecosystems, to provide insight into the key environmental, economic and societal issues associated with managing fire now and in the immediate future.
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| 11/1128 | 20-10-2011 |
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25 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Sub-Saharan African urbanisation and global environmental change. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR2) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Summarises the patterns and forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa’s biophysical experience of global environmental change. Reviews continental trends in urban growth, urbanisation, migration and the shifting urban system in Africa over the last century. Provides a speculative assessment of drivers and impacts of global environmental change linked migration in Africa.
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| 11/1171 | 20-10-2011 |
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9 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The economic growth impact of sea level rise. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR17) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Investigates the possibility that sea-level rise impacts negatively on economic growth and represents an obstacle to development and poverty reduction. Summarises current debates and reviews mechanisms for sea-level rise affecting economic growth such as loss of land. Discusses the potential impact on growth in different economic growth frameworks.
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| 11/1136 | 20-10-2011 |
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24 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The economic growth impacts of extreme events. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR19) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Considers how much economic volatility is attributable to natural disasters, and how these disasters compare to other shocks in terms of the duration of their impact. Summarises data on the incidence of disasters and their costs and impact on outputs. Discusses growth modelling frameworks and approaches, and considers policy implications.
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| 11/1138 | 20-10-2011 |
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21 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The European Union: coordinating environment and migration policies? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD18) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Describes European Union (EU) environmental policy, and the types of coordinating mechanisms that could be used to ensure that EU-level migration policies take account of those in the area of environment, and vice versa. Reviews how far these various mechanisms have been used in the past by the EU coordinate policy interventions within and across these two areas. Makes policy recommendations, focusing on environmental stress as a potential cause of migration within and also into the EU.
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| 11/1152 | 20-10-2011 |
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16 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The European Union's role in migration up to 2030 and then 2060. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Policy development paper (PD19) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Outlines two scenarios for the European Union (EU) over the next 30 to 60 years. Both scenarios have consequences for peripheral sending countries, pressuring them to improve immigration management and border control capacities. Argues that even a fairly developed common policy implies a broad framework leaving a large degree of autonomy to states in interpreting, adjusting, and implementing it. Maintains that demographic and economic needs across the EU vary greatly, and national policy should respond to them.
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| 11/1153 | 20-10-2011 |
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16 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The future of global migration and the impact of environmental change. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR3) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Reviews literature on the impact of climate change on migration, and looks at demand and supply of migration.
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| 11/1172 | 20-10-2011 |
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42 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The impact of environmental change on labour migration from Nepal to the Gulf States. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Case study (CS10) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Investigates how environmental changes in Nepal affect drivers of outmigration from Nepal, based on a review of existing literature on migration, environmental change and social change in Nepal. Outlines the existing nature, pattern and significance of labour migration and its contribution to the livelihoods of migrants and their households. Covers how it is directly impacted by environmental change in the country of Nepal and also by the larger global processes. Looks at how labour migration can contribute to development and adaptation in the face of environmental change in Nepal, and implications for policy.
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| 11/1161 | 20-10-2011 |
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15 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The impacts of environmental change on UK internal migration. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR12) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Summarises the main current drivers of internal migration in the U. Discusses likely future migration patterns and processes under different social scenarios, and anticipates the effects of environmental change on these migration flows. Concludes that the impacts will probably be relatively minor; the UK is considered to be extremely well placed to adjust to climate change without a major redistribution of its population.
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| 11/1182 | 20-10-2011 |
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10 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The Katrina exodus: internal displacements and unequal outcomes. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Case study (CS1) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. In August 2005 Hurricane Katrina produced one of the largest coastal evacuations in the region’s history. The storm and consequent flooding displaced northern Gulf Coast residents, and, six years later, many residents been permanently relocated elsewhere, thus transforming the temporary evacuation into a permanent outmigration. The story of the Katrina diaspora has implications for other environmentally induced migrations. These include estimations of how many people left, the number of returnees, the impacts on host communities and the potential political and economic transformation of the region.
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| 11/1156 | 20-10-2011 |
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12 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The links between environmental change and migration: a livelihoods approach. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Case study review (CR2) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Using a livelihoods approach, reviews the key findings of four quantitative case studies in Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ghana and Nepal to explore what can be inferred on future migration trends linked to the impacts of climate change, and the main implications for policy. Explores the factors underpinning the diversity of mobility in areas affected by gradual environmental change.
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| 11/1191 | 20-10-2011 |
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19 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The possible impacts of high levels of climate change in 2060 and implications for migration. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR8) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Evaluates the potential impacts of high levels of climate change by 2060 on three key environmental push factors: water resources, agriculture and food security, and sea-level rise. If sufficiently strong, these factors could trigger or contribute to migration. Focuses on ‘high-end’ climate change, exploring a worst-case scenario from the absence of meaningful efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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| 11/1126 | 20-10-2011 |
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56 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The search for safety: The effects of conflict, poverty and ecological influences on migration in the developing world. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Driver review (DR5) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Discusses how conflict patterns affect the volume, direction and types of migration within the developing world. Conflict impact and poverty are the two primary drivers directly shaping migrations within poor and high-risk environments. Indirect drivers of migration include livelihood fragility, ecological and political instabilities.
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| 11/1173 | 20-10-2011 |
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12 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Water, conflict and migration in the Eastern Mediterranean. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Case study (CS12) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Examines water, conflict and migration interactions in the politically divided territories of Cyprus and Israel-West Bank and Gaza (WBG). Both of these relatively small territories are home to protracted nationalist conflicts, and have historically been sites of extensive forced displacement and voluntary in- and outmigration. Both, face significant water resource and scarcity problems, which may in future be exacerbated by climate change. They are important cases for assessing historical, current and likely future environment, conflict and migration linkages.
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| 11/1163 | 20-10-2011 |
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25 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE What early warning systems are there for environmental shocks? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR4a) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Dynamic systems perspective on early-warning systems for environmental shocks, with a focus on climate systems and ecosystems. Defines extreme events, abrupt changes and tipping points. Identifies priorities for early-warning systems and the need for an integrated approach that considers the interactions between different types of environmental shock.
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| 11/1122 | 20-10-2011 |
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31 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR6) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Reviews the science of seasonal to decadal forecasting, and draws conclusions on the relationship with migration. Based on the increasing need to know how likely climate events with large societal impact, such as displacement or migration of people, will be in the coming seasons to decades.
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| 11/1125 | 20-10-2011 |
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24 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to the likelihood and potential impact on ecosystems services of future change in the large-scale climate system? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR2) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Literature review that assesses the current state of scientific knowledge on the likelihood and potential impact on the ecosystem services of future change in the large-scale climate system. Considers components such as sea level rise, storms and hurricanes, melting sea ice and Amazonia forest dieback. Summarises impacts across five key regions that are particularly vulnerable.
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| 11/1120 | 20-10-2011 |
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50 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE What is the evidence for changing variability in climates from year to year? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR3) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Assesses the evidence for whether changes in the interannual climate variability may already be occurring, particularly in quantities that may be related to migration. Reviews the evidence for observed changes in extremes, and whether these changes are indicative of a change in interannual variability.
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| 11/1121 | 20-10-2011 |
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23 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE What mechanisms are there for reacting to environmental shocks? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR5) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Analyses mechanisms for reacting to migration associated with environmental shocks. Responds to recent calls for mainstreaming migration into environmental disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Applies to those who move, host or stay behind. Looks at operational mechanisms like contingency planning, guided by on-going evaluation of human vulnerability and capacity.
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| 11/1124 | 20-10-2011 |
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27 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE What would be the impact on the future global migration system – and, specifically, on environmental migration – if the Colombo Process succeeded in its aims (i.e. relatively free mobility takes place within Asia, including to the Gulf region)? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR20) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Explains how the Colombo Process works as a regional framework of cooperation for migration in South Asia, specifically Bangladesh, Pakistan and India. Investigates whether it would lead to relatively freer migration within Asia in the next 20 years using models. Assesses who will move under freer migration within Asia, and what would matter most for future success of the Colombo Process.
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| 11/1139 | 20-10-2011 |
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20 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE What would be the long term (25-50 years) impact on the global migration system – and specifically environmental migration – if, for whatever reason, people no longer wanted to gain entry to the US? (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Working paper (WP1) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Investigates how the global immigration system would be reshaped if the decline in immigration to the USA is the front end of a downward trend, and it continues to the point that many immigrants no longer seek entry to the USA. Focuses on migration motivated by environmental change. Examines the potential impact of greatly reduced immigration to the USA by exploring five possible, inter-related causes of the drop-off. Also looks at two possible outcomes of these scenarios: diversification of migration flows and reduction of international migration.
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| 11/1140 | 20-10-2011 |
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11 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Why the numbers don’t add up: a review of estimates and predictions of people. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Modelling review (MR7) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Reviews the key estimates and predictions people displaced by environmental changes existing in the literature. Also looks at the methodologies they are built on, and the problems and caveats they are fraught with. Reviews the figures related to current estimates of people displaced by environmental changes, and examines the predictions for future displacements. Synthesises the key methodological difficulties and suggests some possible avenues for improvement.
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| 11/1188 | 20-10-2011 |
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9 Pages
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MIGRATION AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Wildfires and migration. (PDF) (link opens in a new window)
Science review (SR11) from the Foresight 'Migration and global environmental change' project. Focuses on the role of wildfire in the mass movement of people. Wildfires are treated as a hazard and a problem, but in rural and natural settings, fire is often a vital force of ecological maintenance and renewal. Many ecosystems are fire tolerant and some are fire dependent. Comments on the drivers of the wildfire problem, and examines causes and impacts before analyzing wildfires, migration and relevant policy issues.
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| 11/1129 | 20-10-2011 |
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16 Pages
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